Hard–Easy Effect

The “hard-easy effect” is a known cognitive bias in self-confidence calibration that refers to the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of success in difficult perceived tasks and underestimate it in easily perceived tasks. Moreover, we found that the phenomenon of the “simple versus complex” phenomenon follows the phenomenon of overconfidence bias. While there is strong evidence of bias in judgment, it seems unlikely that they fully explain the systematic nature of the effect. Few studies have tried to determine the cause of the “hard-to-easy” effect, but it may also be related to another cognitive bias – cycling. [Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6]

Thus, if lottery X promises high stakes, all above or equal to the external milestone, then the agent tends to be uncertain about easy-to-understand tasks and overly trust tasks that are perceived as difficult. Most people who study the hard / easy effect assume that it is due to other biases. Target. This article attempts to investigate how the overconfidence bias affects the forecast accuracy of financial market participants based on the concept of an easy and easy effect of overconfidence research. [Sources: 4, 7, 8]

Thus, if lottery X promises negative results that are less than or equal to the external control point m, then the agent is prone to low confidence in hard-to-understand tasks and over-confidence in easily-perceived tasks. Cognitive biases range from the tripping effect – where truths are accepted because even a large number of people accept them – to confirmation bias – where people believe information that confirms what they think or believe. The cyclist describes our tendency to spend a disproportionate amount of time on daily activities. Many studies have shown that overconfidence is one of the cognitive biases that prevent people from making such decisions. [Sources: 2, 3, 4, 7]

The relationships between country, gender, science education, cognitive bias, and self-confidence bias are discussed. We need to examine these biases to overcome them and make sure we think as clearly and critically as possible when it comes to decision making and information processing. We can also get to know them and even appreciate that we have at least some ability to process the universe with our own mysterious brain. While it is impossible to list all the potential cognitive biases in every life decision, there are actions you can take to train our brains to cope with these phenomena on a more general level. [Sources: 2, 3, 11]

If you visit this page from time to time to refresh your mind, the spacing effect will help highlight some of these thought patterns to keep our prejudices and naive realism in check. Thinking that you are rational despite the obvious irrationality of others is also known as the blind spot bias. Some things that we recall later make all of the above systems more biased and more detrimental to our mental processes. During the experiment, the authors measure and record the accuracy of the participants’ predictions and their individual level of confidence. [Sources: 8, 10, 11]

While the latter is by far the more difficult task, you will eventually have to do it, and you won’t be given the task if you can’t complete it completely. Becoming that “thought leader”, if you will, is beneficial in many ways, including being able to gain the trust of those with whom you want to communicate and authority in the space in which you gained your experience. [Sources: 3]


— Slimane Zouggari


##### Sources #####

[0]: https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095920413

[1]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749597896900746

[2]: https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1207685

[3]: https://www.verizon.com/business/small-business-essentials/resources/learning-learn-fighting-cognitive-biases-030221622/

[4]: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/hard-easy-effect/

[5]: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Naive-empiricism-and-dogmatism-in-confidence-a-of-Juslin-Winman/3e195dae70996ff707ffeaa2941b4ab057219d03

[6]: https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/a-target-based-foundation-for-the-hard-easy-effect-bias/11035798

[7]: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-46319-3_41

[8]: https://ro.uow.edu.au/buspapers/1601/

[9]: https://www.alleydog.com/glossary/definition.php?term=Hard-Easy+Effect

[10]: https://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-2015-10

[11]: https://betterhumans.pub/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18