Hindsight Bias

First, we often distort their memory of past events by selectively recalling information that confirms what we already know. Second, when people find it easy to think and understand past judgments or events (previous thoughts), they may confuse ease with self-confidence. [Sources: 13]

It includes the tendency of people to assume that they know the outcome of an event after the outcome has been determined. After an incident, people usually think that they know the result before it actually happens. This is why the phenomenon of “I have always known” is often mentioned. [Sources: 11]

We talk about this as a limitation of our learning because we tend to believe after the fact that we always knew something. Hence, retrospective knowledge distorts our perception of what we remember knowing in anticipation. In addition, to the extent that different event data differ in support of an actual outcome, evidence consistent with a known outcome may become more cognitively meaningful and therefore more memory accessible. [Sources: 6, 8]

The essence of understanding the knowledge of the result is to rethink the processes and conditions that led to the reported event. After the event has occurred, we use knowledge of the outcome as an anchor to link our previous judgments to the outcome. According to this explanation, knowledge of the outcome of an event functions as an anchor by which people interpret their previous judgments about the likelihood of events. This can lead people to conclude that they can accurately predict other events. [Sources: 6, 12]

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “always know everything,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it is known than it was before it was known. Retrospective bias can distort memories of what a person knew or believed before an event occurred, and is a significant source of overconfidence in a person’s ability to predict the outcome of future events. The term bias refers to the tendency of people to view events as more predictable than they actually are. [Sources: 5, 10, 11]

Before an event takes place, although you can guess the outcome, there is really no way of knowing exactly what will happen. Having learned the result, the person will exaggerate the extent to which he predicted the result. These biases can be found in almost any situation, including the weather forecast or elections. [Sources: 11, 12]

Flashback bias stems from (a) cognitive input (people selectively recall information that is consistent with what they now believe to be real information, and participate in meaning creation to understand their knowledge), (b) metacognitive input (they understand The ease of use) past results may be incorrectly attributed to their perceived prior possibilities) and (c) motivational input (people should treat the world as orderly and predictable, and avoid blaming problems). Retrospective bias, also known as the effect phenomenon [1] or creeping determinism [2], is a general trend that people believe that past events are more predictable than actual conditions. Hindsight is our tendency to look back at unpredictable events at the time and believe that the results are easy to predict. Incidents occurred one after another, and hindsight prejudice made us think that even if we were not sure before the incident, we had predicted the outcome. [Sources: 2, 5, 10, 13]

Therefore, if we feel that we already knew what should have happened from the very beginning, we cannot carefully analyze the result (or the cause of the result). This can give the person the idea that the outcome of the event was inevitable and that nothing could have prevented it. First of all, the person believes that he or she thought that the event would happen (memory distortion), and then, in hindsight, is able to determine the factors that determined that it should have happened (inevitable). Research has shown that in tightly controlled situations, people tend to use inevitability as a coping mechanism (I never got a chance). [Sources: 2, 10, 12]

This creates overconfidence in its ability to predict other future events and can lead to unnecessary risks. Surprise affects the differences in prediction and retrospective in temporal estimates of animated car accidents. [Sources: 5, 12]

In order to understand how a person can easily change the knowledge and belief basis of an event after receiving new information, three cognitive models of hindsight bias are studied. Rose and Boos believe that, from the basic memory process to higher-level reasoning and beliefs, there are three levels of hindsight bias between each other. [Sources: 4, 10]

In this sense, it can be predicted that children who exhibit less retrospective bias should be more able to suppress or postpone their knowledge in the context of the false belief task, allowing them to believe that someone else (or their former self) may have had a false belief. about the situation. This combination of factors may cause older children and adults to access deeply ingrained past beliefs that contradict current reality (success on tasks with false beliefs) while continuing to do poorly on assignments in hindsight. We found that retrospective analyzes were less biased if reasons were given and if correct information was provided earlier. [Sources: 0, 3]

In order to test the relationship between hindsight bias and ToM more conservatively, we performed a multi-level regression on age, language ability, executive function (card sorting, day/night, and working memory), and finally hindsight bias (discrete and continuous). ). Hindsight bias, real object hindsight bias) to predict ToM performance. Our Real Object Hindsight business is related to Computer Hindsight business, and both are related to ToM testing. Although both of these skills are related to performing ToM tasks, only the second skill is related to performing standard retrospective analysis tasks (adults understand that the brain can distort reality). Brain interruptions in certain areas of the brain can also affect a person’s thinking process, which may cause hindsight. [Sources: 3, 10]

When the jury believes that the outcome of a particular act is more likely to occur “reasonably” after knowing the outcome, it believes that the defendant can know more than they knew at the time of the litigation, thus preventing the “bad” outcome. New techniques for visualizing and understanding data sets may have undesirable consequences that increase hindsight bias, but interventions that induce people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given result can reduce hindsight bias. Obstacles to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize its impact. [Sources: 5, 6]

Pillemer, D.B., Goldsmith, L.R., Panther, A.T., White, S. (1988). MPTs have been used to investigate a wide range of issues in cognitive and social psychology, such as source monitoring (Batchalder & Riefer, 1990; Batchelder, Riefer, & Hu, 1994; Bayen, Murnane, & Erdfelder, 1996; Klauer & Ehrenberg, 2005; Klauer & Meiser 2000), social categorization (Klauer & Wegener, 1998), illusory truth (Begg, Anas & Farinacci, 1992), retrospective bias (Erdfelder & Buchner, 1998), gender bias (Buchner & Wippich, 1996), age-related false memories (Jacoby, Bishara, Hessels, & Toth, 2005), stereotypes (Meiser & Hewstone, 2004), and propositional reasoning (Klauer & Oberauer, 1995); Oberauer, 2006) and many others. This section of the chapter is not intended to provide a complete list of MPTs that have been applied to conflict response problems, or even a complete discussion of the MPTs described here. [Sources: 5, 15]


— Slimane Zouggari


##### Sources #####

[0]: https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03197054

[1]: https://www.psychologytools.com/resource/hindsight-bias/

[2]: https://boycewire.com/hindsight-bias-definition-and-examples/

[3]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3649066/

[4]: https://www.psychologicalscience.org/news/releases/i-knew-it-all-along-didnt-i-understanding-hindsight-bias.html

[5]: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691612454303

[6]: https://fs.blog/what-is-hindsight-bias/

[7]: https://www.nirandfar.com/hindsight-bias/

[8]: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/hindsight-bias/

[9]: https://examples.yourdictionary.com/examples-of-hindsight-bias.html

[10]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

[11]: https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-hindsight-bias-2795236

[12]: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindsight-bias.asp

[13]: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/hindsight-bias/

[14]: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20190430-how-hindsight-bias-skews-your-judgement

[15]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/hindsight-bias